World Cup 2026 — suggested predictions

Karl Atkinson · updated Tue 14 Jul, 16:25 BST

Predictions run 2026-07-14-1620 (Tue 14 Jul, 16:20 London) · previous 2026-07-09-1022

Suggested scores only — verify before submitting to voetbalpoules. League points: voetbalpoules puntentelling. Match results: 90 minutes + stoppage time unless stated otherwise.

Knockout tracker

Knockout scorecard

Pre-kickoff suggested score vs actual 90-minute result — same tiers as voetbalpoules. Pick = last saved run before kick-off.

117 knockout pts27 scored · 28 finished · 1 unscored
4exact10 pts
13outcome5–7 pts
6partial2 pts
4miss0 pts

Knockout avg 4.3 pts/match (scored fixtures only). Unscored = no valid pre-kickoff pick for the actual pairing.

Group stage (same scoring rules): 292 pts from 72 matches · avg 4.1/match.

Round of 32 — completed

Kick-off Round Match Pick Actual (90′) Pts Tier
Sun 28 Jun, 20:00 BST R32 South Africa vs Canada 1–2 0–1 +5 Winner · 5 pts
Mon 29 Jun, 18:00 BST R32 Brazil vs Japan 2–1 2–1 +10 Exact · 10 pts
Mon 29 Jun, 21:30 BST R32 Germany vs Paraguay — 1–1 — Pre-kickoff pick was Germany vs Scotland (wrong bracket)
Tue 30 Jun, 02:00 BST R32 Netherlands vs Morocco 2–1 1–1 +2 Away goals · 2 pts
Tue 30 Jun, 18:00 BST R32 Cote d'Ivoire vs Norway 1–2 1–2 +10 Exact · 10 pts
Tue 30 Jun, 22:00 BST R32 France vs Sweden 2–0 3–0 +5 Winner · 5 pts
Wed 1 Jul, 02:00 BST R32 Mexico vs Ecuador 2–1 2–0 +5 Winner · 5 pts
Wed 1 Jul, 17:00 BST R32 England vs DR Congo 1–0 2–1 +5 Winner · 5 pts
Wed 1 Jul, 21:00 BST R32 Belgium vs Senegal 2–1 2–2 +2 Home goals · 2 pts
Thu 2 Jul, 01:00 BST R32 United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina 2–0 2–0 +10 Exact · 10 pts
Thu 2 Jul, 20:00 BST R32 Spain vs Austria 2–0 3–0 +5 Winner · 5 pts
Fri 3 Jul, 00:00 BST R32 Portugal vs Croatia 2–1 2–1 +10 Exact · 10 pts
Fri 3 Jul, 04:00 BST R32 Switzerland vs Algeria 2–1 2–0 +5 Winner · 5 pts
Fri 3 Jul, 19:00 BST R32 Australia vs Egypt 1–2 1–1 +2 Home goals · 2 pts
Fri 3 Jul, 23:00 BST R32 Argentina vs Cape Verde 2–0 1–1 +0 Miss · 0 pts
Sat 4 Jul, 02:30 BST R32 Colombia vs Ghana 1–1 1–0 +2 Home goals · 2 pts

Round of 32 — upcoming

All R32 fixtures finished.

Round of 16

Kick-off Round Match Pick Actual (90′) Pts Tier
Sat 4 Jul, 18:00 BST R16 Canada vs Morocco 1–2 0–3 +5 Winner · 5 pts
Sat 4 Jul, 22:00 BST R16 Paraguay vs France 0–2 0–1 +5 Winner · 5 pts
Sun 5 Jul, 21:00 BST R16 Brazil vs Norway 2–1 1–2 +0 Miss · 0 pts
Mon 6 Jul, 01:00 BST R16 Mexico vs England 1–1 2–3 +0 Miss · 0 pts
Mon 6 Jul, 20:00 BST R16 Spain vs Portugal 2–1 1–0 +5 Winner · 5 pts
Mon 6 Jul, 22:00 BST R16 United States vs Belgium 1–2 1–4 +5 Winner · 5 pts
Tue 7 Jul, 17:00 BST R16 Argentina vs Egypt 1–0 3–2 +5 Winner · 5 pts
Tue 7 Jul, 21:00 BST R16 Switzerland vs Colombia 2–1 0–0 +0 Miss · 0 pts

Pre-tournament picks

Group standings (1st → 4th)

Group A

  1. 1 Mexico
  2. 2 South Africa
  3. 3 Korea Republic
  4. 4 Czechia

Group B

  1. 1 Switzerland
  2. 2 Canada
  3. 3 Bosnia and Herzegovina
  4. 4 Qatar

Group C

  1. 1 Brazil
  2. 2 Morocco
  3. 3 Scotland
  4. 4 Haiti

Group D

  1. 1 United States
  2. 2 Australia
  3. 3 Paraguay
  4. 4 Turkiye

Group E

  1. 1 Germany
  2. 2 Cote d'Ivoire
  3. 3 Ecuador
  4. 4 Curacao

Group F

  1. 1 Netherlands
  2. 2 Japan
  3. 3 Sweden
  4. 4 Tunisia

Group G

  1. 1 Egypt
  2. 2 Belgium
  3. 3 Iran
  4. 4 New Zealand

Group H

  1. 1 Spain
  2. 2 Uruguay
  3. 3 Cape Verde
  4. 4 Saudi Arabia

Group I

  1. 1 France
  2. 2 Norway
  3. 3 Senegal
  4. 4 Iraq

Group J

  1. 1 Argentina
  2. 2 Algeria
  3. 3 Austria
  4. 4 Jordan

Group K

  1. 1 Colombia
  2. 2 Portugal
  3. 3 DR Congo
  4. 4 Uzbekistan

Group L

  1. 1 England
  2. 2 Ghana
  3. 3 Croatia
  4. 4 Panama

Groups A–C confirmed after MD3 (25 Jun 2026): Mexico 9pts; South Africa historic R32 runners-up; Switzerland top Group B over Canada; Brazil/Morocco advance from Group C. Remaining groups reflect MD2 standings plus tournament learnings through 54 matches — England/Ghana 4pts joint Group L leaders after 0-0; Colombia qualified Group K; Portugal 4pts after 5-0 Uzbekistan bounce-back. Third-place wildcard race still open (Scotland, Bosnia, Senegal, DR Congo among contenders).

Knockout picks

Champion
Spain
Runner-up
France
Third place
England

Top scorer

Kylian Mbappe (France)

Composite 24/25 · 8 expected WC matches

Composite scoring (1–5 per dimension, max 25 total)

Each candidate is rated 1 (weak) to 5 (strong) on five factors; the composite is the sum. This is a research ranking, not predicted World Cup goals.

DimensionWhat 5 vs 1 means
MatchesNation predicted to go deep (5 = finalist / 7–8 games; 1 = group exit / 3 games max)
G/90NT or club scoring rate and role (5 = elite starter; 1 = low minutes)
PensPenalty duties (5 = first-choice taker; 1 = not on pens)
GroupGroup draw and likely group-stage goals (5 = favourable; 1 = grind / tough group)
FitAvailability (5 = confirmed fit; 1 = doubt or injury)

Kylian Mbappe pick

finalist · 8 games

24/25

Matches 5
G/90 5
Pens 5
Group 5
Fit 4

Harry Kane

semi_final · 7 games

23/25

Matches 4
G/90 5
Pens 5
Group 5
Fit 4

Erling Haaland

r16 · 5 games

21/25

Matches 3
G/90 5
Pens 5
Group 3
Fit 5
Player Exit Games MatchesG/90PensGroupFit Total
Kylian Mbappe pick finalist 8 55554 24
Harry Kane semi_final 7 45554 23
Erling Haaland r16 5 35535 21

FBref G/90 (primary pick): NT 0, club 0.96

Change history

Every suggested score change across saved runs (newest first).

Run Match Was Now Reason
Tue 7 Jul, 09:40 London Argentina vs Egypt 2–1 1–0 Spain 1-0 Portugal + clean-sheet streak — cap favourite wins vs low blocks
Mon 6 Jul, 20:00 London Argentina vs Egypt 2–0 2–1 Messi in form but Cape Verde scare (1-1 at 90) shows vulnerability; Egypt low block + Salah — holders grind 2-1 Atlanta.
Tue 30 Jun, 14:30 London Colombia vs Ghana 1–0 1–1 Even Ghana xG (2.06/2.51); situational low block only; xGQuadrant 5.45 vs 3.66 xPts not blowout
Tue 30 Jun, 12:00 London Colombia vs Ghana 2–1 1–0 Pairing fix
Tue 30 Jun, 12:00 London Australia vs Egypt 0–1 1–2 Pairing fix
Tue 30 Jun, 12:00 London Portugal vs Croatia 1–2 2–1 Pairing fix
Thu 25 Jun, 18:21 London Algeria vs Austria 1–1 0–1 Argentina through; Austria 3pts need win (Oddschecker 19/10 away); Algeria momentum from Jordan win insufficient
Thu 25 Jun, 18:21 London Egypt vs Iran 1–1 1–0 Egypt 4pts top; Iran 0-0 Belgium low block
Thu 25 Jun, 18:21 London Uruguay vs Spain 1–2 0–1 Spain 4-0 Saudi but 0-0 Cape Verde possession trap; Uruguay gritty
Thu 25 Jun, 18:21 London Senegal vs Iraq 2–0 2–1 Senegal/Iraq eliminated pride game
Thu 25 Jun, 18:21 London Norway vs France 1–2 2–2 Both through on 6pts; Norway 3-2 Senegal open game + Haaland 7 GF
Thu 25 Jun, 18:21 London Paraguay vs Australia 1–1 0–1 Australia +GD over Paraguay; Irankunda counter threat back
Thu 25 Jun, 18:21 London Turkiye vs United States 0–2 1–2 USA 6pts hosts (Oddschecker 6/4 away); Turkiye 0pts but pride fixture
Thu 25 Jun, 18:21 London Tunisia vs Netherlands 0–2 0–3 Tunisia 0pts/1-9 GA eliminated; Netherlands 5-1 Sweden + Oddschecker 13/25 away
Thu 25 Jun, 17:33 London Algeria vs Austria 2–1 1–1 Argentina through; Algeria/Austria 3pts fight for 2nd
Thu 25 Jun, 17:33 London Colombia vs Portugal 2–1 1–2 Colombia qualified (6pts); Portugal 4pts must-win after Ronaldo 5-0 bounce
Thu 25 Jun, 17:33 London Croatia vs Ghana 2–1 1–1 Ghana 4pts held England 0-0; Croatia 3pts must-win
Thu 25 Jun, 17:33 London Panama vs England 0–2 0–1 England 4pts need win; 0-0 Ghana shows possession trap
Thu 25 Jun, 17:33 London Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia 2–0 1–0 Cape Verde unbeaten (0-0 Spain, 2-2 Uruguay); Saudi 0-4 Spain
Thu 25 Jun, 17:33 London Norway vs France 2–2 1–2 Both through on 6pts; Haaland 7 GF vs Mbappé
Thu 25 Jun, 17:33 London Tunisia vs Netherlands 0–3 0–2 Tunisia eliminated (0pts); Netherlands 5-1 Sweden form
Thu 25 Jun, 17:33 London Curacao vs Cote d'Ivoire 0–2 0–1 Curacao held Ecuador 0-0 (15 saves); Ivory Coast 3pts must-win
Tue 23 Jun, 11:20 London Jordan vs Argentina 0–3 0–2 Jordan eliminated; Argentina rotate but Messi 5 goals — holders professional.
Tue 23 Jun, 11:20 London DR Congo vs Uzbekistan 2–0 1–0 DR Congo drew Portugal; Uzbekistan 0pts — Congo edge for 3rd-place coefficient.
Tue 23 Jun, 11:20 London Croatia vs Ghana 2–0 2–1 Group L decider for 2nd; Croatia quality vs Ghana low block — narrow home win.
Tue 23 Jun, 11:20 London Panama vs England 0–3 0–2 England need win; Panama 0pts — Three Lions control without 4-goal chase.
Tue 23 Jun, 11:20 London New Zealand vs Belgium 0–2 0–1 Belgium must-win vs NZ; Red Devils frustrated by low blocks but quality tells 0-1.
Tue 23 Jun, 11:20 London Egypt vs Iran 2–1 1–1 Egypt top on 4pts; Iran resilient (0-0 Belgium) — draw enough for Egypt R32.
Tue 23 Jun, 11:20 London Uruguay vs Spain 0–2 1–2 Spain 4-0 Saudi but Uruguay 2-2 Cape Verde — La Roja edge, not blowout vs competitive Uruguay.
Tue 23 Jun, 11:20 London Senegal vs Iraq 1–1 2–0 Senegal/Iraq both out; pride game — Senegal edge at home Toronto.
Tue 23 Jun, 11:20 London Norway vs France 1–2 2–2 Both through; Haaland 4 WC goals vs Mbappé — open decider for top spot (Norway 3-2 Senegal template).
Tue 23 Jun, 11:20 London Turkiye vs United States 0–3 0–2 USA 6pts through; Turkiye 0pts/0 GF — hosts professional at SoFi, not 4-goal fest.
Tue 23 Jun, 11:20 London Tunisia vs Netherlands 0–2 0–3 Tunisia 0pts/1-9 GA; Netherlands 5-1 Sweden — Oranje romp vs eliminated side.
Tue 23 Jun, 11:20 London Japan vs Sweden 1–2 2–1 Japan 4-0 Tunisia; Sweden 5-1 Tunisia but lost 5-1 to Netherlands — Samurai Blue edge Dallas.
Tue 23 Jun, 11:20 London Czechia vs Mexico 0–2 1–2 Mexico 6pts Azteca altitude; Czechia 1pt — hosts edge in Mexico City decider.
Tue 23 Jun, 11:20 London Scotland vs Brazil 0–3 0–2 Brazil 3-0 Haiti; Scotland 0-1 Morocco — Seleção win narrow in Miami heat, not 3-0 (Group C pragmatism).
Tue 23 Jun, 11:20 London Colombia vs DR Congo 3–1 2–1 Colombia 3-1 Uzbekistan; DR Congo held Portugal 1-1 — Los Cafeteros edge in Guadalajara, not clean sheet.
Tue 23 Jun, 11:20 London Panama vs Croatia 0–2 0–1 Croatia must-win (0pts); Panama park bus — Modrić side grind 0-1 not 0-2 blowout.
Tue 23 Jun, 09:54 London Jordan vs Argentina 0–2 0–3 Jordan eliminated; Messi 5 WC goals — Argentina rotate but still too strong (MD2 review).
Tue 23 Jun, 09:54 London Algeria vs Austria 1–1 2–1 Algeria 2-1 Jordan bounce-back; Austria lost 0-2 Argentina — Desert Foxes edge Gijon rematch (MD2 review).
Tue 23 Jun, 09:54 London Egypt vs Iran 1–1 2–1 Egypt 3-1 NZ top Group G; Iran 0-0 Belgium — Salah side need win not draw (MD2 review).
Tue 23 Jun, 09:54 London Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia 1–1 2–0 Cape Verde 2-2 Uruguay + 0-0 Spain; Saudi 0-4 Spain — islanders can clinch R32 (MD2 review).
Tue 23 Jun, 09:54 London Norway vs France 0–2 1–2 Norway 3-2 Senegal (Haaland x4); France through but Haaland vs Mbappé decider — narrow away win.
Tue 23 Jun, 09:54 London Turkiye vs United States 1–3 0–3 USA 2-0 Australia; Turkiye 0-1 Paraguay — hosts too strong at SoFi (MD2 review).
Tue 23 Jun, 09:54 London Scotland vs Brazil 0–2 0–3 Brazil 3-0 Haiti; Scotland 0-1 Morocco — Seleção cruise in Miami (MD2 review).
Tue 23 Jun, 09:54 London Colombia vs DR Congo 2–0 3–1 Colombia 3-1 Uzbekistan; Congo held Portugal 1-1 — Los Cafeteros attack in Guadalajara heat (MD2 review).
Tue 23 Jun, 09:54 London England vs Ghana 3–1 2–0 England 4-2 Croatia; Ghana 1-0 Panama — Three Lions control without over-chasing 3-1 (MD2 review).
Tue 23 Jun, 09:54 London Portugal vs Uzbekistan 3–0 2–0 Portugal 1-1 Congo MD1; must beat Uzbekistan — Ronaldo side too strong for Group K minnow (MD2 review).
Fri 19 Jun, 11:00 London Colombia vs Portugal 1–2 2–1 Colombia 3-1 Uzbekistan; Portugal 1-1 Congo — Los Cafeteros momentum in Miami heat vs flat Seleção (MD2 review).
Fri 19 Jun, 11:00 London Turkiye vs United States 1–2 1–3 USA 4-1 Paraguay + likely MD2 win; Turkiye 0-2 Australia — upgrade away goals (MD2 review).
Fri 19 Jun, 11:00 London Switzerland vs Canada 2–1 2–2 Canada 6-0 Qatar + David hat-trick; Switzerland 4-1 Bosnia — both flying; Vancouver home edge cancelled by Swiss quality (MD2 review).
Fri 19 Jun, 11:00 London England vs Ghana 2–1 3–1 England 4-2 Croatia (Kane x2); Ghana 1-0 Panama — Three Lions scoring freely (MD2 review).
Fri 19 Jun, 11:00 London Germany vs Cote d'Ivoire 2–1 3–1 Germany 7-1 Curacao MD1; Ivory Coast 1-0 Ecuador — both on 3pts but Mannschaft firepower warrants 3-1 not 2-1 (MD2 review).
Fri 19 Jun, 11:00 London Scotland vs Morocco 1–2 0–2 Morocco drew Brazil 1-1; Scotland beat Haiti but market -154 Morocco; humid Boston suits Atlas Lions low block (MD2 review).
Fri 19 Jun, 11:00 London United States vs Australia 1–0 2–1 USA 4-1 Paraguay MD1; Australia 2-0 Turkiye but Seattle home crowd — market ~3/5 USA; open 2-1 over cautious 1-0 (MD2 review).
Tue 16 Jun, 14:30 London Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia 0–1 1–1 Cape Verde held Spain; Saudi drew Uruguay — 1-1 not narrow Saudi 0-1 (MD1 review).
Tue 16 Jun, 14:30 London Japan vs Sweden 2–1 1–2 Sweden top Group F after 5-1; Japan drew Netherlands — 1-2 Sweden not Japan 2-1 (MD1 review).
Tue 16 Jun, 14:30 London Scotland vs Brazil 1–2 0–2 Brazil 4/9 away; Scotland competitive but do not gift goals — 0-2 not 1-2 (Scotland lesson).
Tue 16 Jun, 14:30 London Switzerland vs Canada 1–2 2–1 Switzerland 6/5 home; prior 1-2 was Canada away win vs market — hosts edge (MD1 review).
Tue 16 Jun, 14:30 London Jordan vs Algeria 2–0 1–2 Algeria 13/20 away fav; prior 2-0 Jordan inverted rationale — fix (MD1 review).
Tue 16 Jun, 14:30 London Norway vs Senegal 1–2 1–1 Norway 6/5 home vs Senegal; prior 1-2 pick contradicted market — open Group I (MD1 review).
Tue 16 Jun, 14:30 London Uruguay vs Cape Verde 1–1 2–0 Uruguay 1/2 heavy fav; Cape Verde 0-0 Spain ≠ parity — revert 1-1 (MD1 review).
Tue 16 Jun, 14:30 London Spain vs Saudi Arabia 2–1 2–0 Spain 2/15 must beat Saudi after 0-0 opener — 2-0 not 2-1 (MD1 review).
Tue 16 Jun, 14:30 London Germany vs Cote d'Ivoire 3–1 2–1 Germany 4/7 vs Ivory Coast both on 3pts — tight not 3-1 (MD1 review).
Tue 16 Jun, 14:30 London Netherlands vs Sweden 2–2 2–1 Netherlands 8/11 home fav; Sweden beat Tunisia but market still backs Oranje — not 2-2 (MD1 review).
Tue 16 Jun, 14:30 London Turkiye vs Paraguay 2–0 1–0 Turkiye 13/10 home bounce; Paraguay shipped 4 — narrow not 2-0 (MD1 review).
Tue 16 Jun, 14:30 London Brazil vs Haiti 2–0 3–0 Brazil 2/15 vs Haiti; Morocco draw does not shrink Seleção vs bottom of Group C (MD1 review).
Tue 16 Jun, 14:30 London United States vs Australia 2–1 1–0 USA 3/4 fav; Squawka Under 2.5 controlled Seattle — 1-0 not 2-1 (MD1 review).
Tue 16 Jun, 14:30 London Mexico vs Korea Republic 1–1 2–1 Mexico 21/20 home vs Korea; both MD1 winners but altitude Guadalajara — not a coin-flip 1-1 (MD1 review).
Tue 16 Jun, 14:30 London Canada vs Qatar 1–0 2–0 Canada 7/20 home fav vs Qatar; hosts after B&H draw — MD1 review restores 2-0 over cautious 1-0.
Tue 16 Jun, 09:29 London Scotland vs Brazil 0–2 1–2 Scotland beat Haiti and competitive in Group C; Brazil still quality but 1-1 Morocco MD1.
Tue 16 Jun, 09:29 London New Zealand vs Egypt 1–1 1–2 NZ scored twice vs Iran; Egypt drew Belgium — Pharoahs edge in Vancouver.
Tue 16 Jun, 09:29 London Uruguay vs Cape Verde 2–0 1–1 Cape Verde held Spain 0-0; Uruguay drew Saudi — both defensively stubborn.
Tue 16 Jun, 09:29 London Belgium vs Iran 2–1 1–1 Group G all on 1 pt after MD1 draws (Belgium 1-1 Egypt, Iran 2-2 NZ) — cagey LA rematch.
Tue 16 Jun, 09:29 London Spain vs Saudi Arabia 2–0 2–1 Spain frustrated 0-0 vs Cape Verde — need win vs Saudi; Yamal fit.
Tue 16 Jun, 09:29 London Germany vs Cote d'Ivoire 2–1 3–1 Germany 7-1 Curacao; Ivory Coast beat Ecuador — open game in Toronto.
Tue 16 Jun, 09:29 London Netherlands vs Sweden 2–1 2–2 Netherlands 2-2 Japan + Sweden 5-1 Tunisia — both MD1 high-scoring; Houston heat.
Tue 16 Jun, 09:29 London Turkiye vs Paraguay 1–1 2–0 Turkiye bounced from 0-2 Australia loss; Paraguay shipped 4 vs USA — home side need points.
Tue 16 Jun, 09:29 London Brazil vs Haiti 3–0 2–0 Brazil only drew Morocco MD1 — trim expectation; Haiti outclassed but Seleção not firing.
Tue 16 Jun, 09:29 London United States vs Australia 1–1 2–1 USA 4-1 Paraguay + Pulisic form; Australia strong but hosts edge in Seattle.
Tue 16 Jun, 09:29 London Mexico vs Korea Republic 2–1 1–1 Both MD1 winners (Mexico 2-0, Korea 2-1); altitude Guadalajara favours hosts but Korea confident.
Tue 16 Jun, 09:29 London Canada vs Qatar 2–0 1–0 Canada home after B&H draw; Qatar held Switzerland — Larin edge in Vancouver.
Tue 16 Jun, 09:29 London Czechia vs South Africa 1–1 1–0 Czechia need response after Korea loss; SA beaten by Mexico — narrow home win.
Wed 10 Jun, 10:51 London Brazil vs Morocco 1–1 2–1 Market shifted to 4/6 Brazil home — drop contrarian draw for market-aligned narrow win
Wed 10 Jun, 10:51 London Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina 2–1 1–1 Davies + Džeko both doubtful (Jun 10 squad news); attrition on both sides
Thu 4 Jun, 10:52 London Sweden vs Tunisia 1–0 1–1 Monterrey ~35–38 °C dry heat — Tunisia acclimatization vs Nordic Sweden; market still 1/1 Sweden — weather draw nudge. Alternate **1-0** retained.
Thu 4 Jun, 10:52 London Korea Republic vs Czechia 1–1 0–1 FBref Korea L 0-4 friendly (Mar 2026); hot Guadalajara slight Korea summer edge — form still nudges Czechia; Oddschecker 7/4 · 9/5 away.
Fri 29 May, 17:00 London Australia vs Turkiye 1–1 0–1 Oddschecker favours Turkiye (5/6 away); nudge from draw to narrow away win.
Fri 29 May, 16:30 London Australia vs Turkiye 0–1 1–1 Turkiye odds lengthened post-qualifying; tight Group D.
Fri 29 May, 16:30 London Korea Republic vs Czechia 0–1 1–1 Even Group A clash; both need points behind Mexico favourite.
Fri 29 May, 15:37 London Korea Republic vs Czechia 1–1 0–1 FBref Korea L 0-4 friendly (Mar 2026) vs market 7/4 home — form nudge to Czechia 9/5.
Fri 29 May, 15:05 London Brazil vs Morocco 2–1 1–1 Brazil 4/7 market fav but 2022 H2H + Morocco form — 3/1 draw value vs 5/1 away.
Fri 29 May, 15:05 London Australia vs Turkiye 1–1 0–1 Oddschecker 5/6 Turkiye away fav (7/2 / 27/10 / 5/6); narrow away win.
Fri 29 May, 15:05 London United States vs Paraguay 2–0 1–0 Oddschecker hub 21/20 USA · 13/5 draw · 3/1 Paraguay — narrow home win vs low block.

Match predictions

See change history for how picks evolved across runs.

Tue 14 Jul, 20:00 BST France vs Spain Pick 2–1 medium

France unbeaten in KO with no goal conceded and lethal pace vs Spain's slow high line; market favourite to qualify. Spain always score (narrow-win pattern), so both net — France edge 2-1, not a clean sheet. Alt: 1–1

Oddschecker (reported, 2026-07-14): H 6/4 · D 23/10 · A 12/5 — fav home. Source

Research

France vs Spain (Semi-final 1)

Snapshot

Field Value
Kick-off Tue, 14 Jul 2026, 20:00 Europe/London (14:00 local CT)
Stage sf (M101)
Venue AT&T Stadium, Arlington/Dallas — retractable roof, climate-controlled
Winner plays England or Argentina, final Sun 19 Jul (MetLife, NJ)

Head-to-head

  • All-time H2H favours Spain 18 wins to France's 13, with 7 draws. Tag: reported.
  • Spain beat France 2-1 in the Euro 2024 semi-final (Yamal wondergoal + Olmo) and won a 5-4 Nations League final in 2025. Tag: confirmed.
  • Lamine Yamal has scored 3 goals in 2 games against France. Tag: reported.

Form (this tournament)

Team Path GF GA Notes
France 6-0-0 16 2 R32 3-0 Sweden, R16 1-0 Paraguay, QF 2-0 Morocco (Mbappe, Dembele) — no goal conceded in knockouts; chasing 7 straight WC wins — confirmed
Spain unbeaten (37 competitive) — 1 R16 1-0 Portugal (Merino 90+1), QF 2-1 Belgium (Merino 88); conceded 1st tournament goal vs Belgium — confirmed

Tournament stats / narrative

  • France 2nd-highest scorers (16), behind Argentina (17); Mbappe joint-Golden Boot lead (8). Tag: reported.
  • Spain grind — narrow wins, Merino a repeat late super-sub match-winner (Portugal + Belgium). Tag: confirmed.
  • France pace on the counter targets Spain's slower CB pairing (Laporte/Cubarsi) and high line. Tag: reported (multiple previews).

Venue and context

  • Venue: AT&T Stadium, retractable roof + AC — heat/humidity neutralised, fast true surface. Tag: confirmed.
  • Both European sides; no acclimatisation edge indoors — pure quality tie. Tag: inferred.
  • Bastille Day for France; De La Fuente's Spain unbeaten since Mar 2023 (36+ games). Tag: reported.

Squad availability

Player / role Team Status Tag
Kylian Mbappe France Expected to start (minor ankle knock vs Morocco; "completely fine") reported
Aurelien Tchouameni France Returned to full training (thigh) reported
Manu Kone France Precautionary knee withdrawal; available reported
Lamine Yamal Spain Undroppable starter (below Euro 2024 peak) reported
Nico Williams / Yeremy Pino Spain Back available after mid-tournament injuries reported
Mikel Merino Spain Impact sub / finisher (2 late KO winners) reported

Tactical and motivation

  • France: direct, transition-heavy, elite pace (Mbappe, Dembele, Olise) — lethal vs high line.
  • Spain: possession control, Rodri-anchored midfield, low goal concession; wins arrive late.
  • Revenge motive for France after Euro 2024 semi loss; Spain confident from recent H2H.
  • Expect a tight, high-quality tie — both attacks strong but both defences resilient; BTTS plausible, but neither is a blowout side in the knockouts.
  • Lean France 2-1: quality + pace edge and Mbappe, but Spain score (narrow-win pattern cuts both ways).

Factor summary

Factor Edge Confidence
Attacking pace / transitions France high
Possession control / midfield Spain high
Recent H2H Spain medium
Knockout defensive record France (0 conceded in KO) medium
Market (to qualify) France (-148) medium

Market odds (secondary)

Source Home (France) Draw Away (Spain) Note Tag
Bookmakers (90-min ML) ~+130 ~+230 ~+229 France favourite reported
To qualify (incl. ET) France -148/-150 — Spain +120 France favoured reported
Total Over 2.5 slight lean (-116) reported

Structured prices refreshed via npm run wc2026:odds-fetch -- --write --only-predicted karl-atkinson.

Key uncertainties

  • Mbappe fitness — expected to start but ankle knock unconfirmed at XI release. Tag: unknown.
  • Both sides prone to tight, late-decided knockouts — a 1-1 (→ ET) is a live alternate. Tag: inferred.
  • League scores 90 minutes only — extra time/pens excluded. Tag: confirmed rule.

Sources

Wed 15 Jul, 20:00 BST England vs Argentina Pick 2–1 low

Opta reg-time edge to England (38.9% vs 34.1%), Bellingham/Kane KO form and Argentina fatigue after two extra-time wins tilt a tight tie. Messi makes Argentina score, so 2-1 over a clean sheet; genuine coin-flip with high extra-time risk. Alt: 1–1

Oddschecker (reported, 2026-07-14): H 9/5 · D 2/1 · A 21/10 — fav home. Source

Research

England vs Argentina (Semi-final 2)

Snapshot

Field Value
Kick-off Wed, 15 Jul 2026, 20:00 Europe/London (15:00 local ET)
Stage sf (M102)
Venue Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta — retractable roof, climate-controlled
Winner plays France or Spain, final Sun 19 Jul (MetLife, NJ)

Head-to-head

  • Storied rivalry (1986 "Hand of God", 1998, 2002). England lead WC/overall H2H 6 wins to 3, 5 draws. Tag: reported.
  • First time Lionel Messi faces England at international level. Tag: confirmed.
  • Argentina 100% record at WC semi-final stage historically; England seeking first final since 1966. Tag: reported.

Form (this tournament)

Team Path Notes
England W-D-W QF 2-1 Norway (AET; Bellingham brace), R16 3-2 Mexico (Azteca altitude), 0-0 Ghana group; Bellingham 6 goals (hot in KO), Kane 6 — confirmed
Argentina W-W-W (2 via AET) QF 3-1 Switzerland (AET), R16 3-2 Egypt (from 2-0 down), R32 3-2 Cape Verde (AET); Messi 8 goals (Golden Boot lead) — confirmed

Tournament stats / narrative

  • Argentina top scorers (17); Messi 8 goals + 2 assists in 6, most WC goals ever (21). Tag: reported.
  • Fatigue on Argentina — three attritional knockouts, two to extra time; previews flag legs "catching up" and Messi tiring. Tag: reported.
  • England's defence still leaky (conceded to Mexico, Norway); knockout comebacks fuelled by Bellingham/Kane (12 of 13 goals). Tag: reported.
  • Opta supercomputer: England 38.9% reg win, Argentina 34.1%, 27% chance of extra time. Tag: reported.

Venue and context

  • Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta — retractable roof + AC; heat neutralised indoors. Tag: confirmed.
  • Largely neutral/pro-Argentina Latino crowd expected in Atlanta; not a home edge for England. Tag: inferred.

Squad availability

Player / role Team Status Tag
Jude Bellingham England Starter, 6 goals, KO talisman reported
Harry Kane England Starter, 6 goals reported
Declan Rice England Managing illness/fitness from QF reported
Jarell Quansah England Suspended (2nd match of ban); available for final confirmed
Reece James England Fit but may not start (hamstring) reported
Lionel Messi Argentina Expected to start (eye knock cleared) reported
Cristian Romero Argentina Cleared after calf scan; started QF reported
Julian Alvarez Argentina Likely to start ahead of Lautaro (ET scorers both) reported

Tactical and motivation

  • England plan: compact Rice/Mainoo midfield cage to choke supply to Messi; break via Bellingham transitions into Kane.
  • Argentina: Messi orchestration + clutch late goals (pattern all KO), but reliant on tiring legs and defensively openable (conceded 2 to Egypt, 1 to Switzerland).
  • Huge rivalry + first Messi-vs-England adds edge; likely cagey, low-scoring, high chance of extra time.
  • Media split: Standard England 2-1; Sports Mole Argentina 1-2; Football365 leans draw → ET/pens.
  • Lean England 2-1 (90): Opta reg edge + Bellingham/Kane form + Argentina fatigue; but a 1-1 draw (→ ET) is a strong alternate given both attacks and the occasion.

Factor summary

Factor Edge Confidence
Reg-time model (Opta) England medium
Individual magic (Messi) Argentina high
Freshness / legs England medium
Knockout steel / comebacks Even medium
Defensive solidity Neither (both leak) low

Market odds (secondary)

Source Home (England) Draw Away (Argentina) Note Tag
Bookmakers (90-min) 6/4 (~+150) 2/1 (~+200) 19/10 (~+190) England slight fav reported
To qualify (incl. ET) England 4/5 — Argentina 11/10 England edge reported
Opta (reg win %) 38.9% ~27% ET 34.1% — reported

Structured prices refreshed via npm run wc2026:odds-fetch -- --write --only-predicted karl-atkinson.

Key uncertainties

  • Argentina fatigue vs Messi single-handed match-winning capacity — swing factor. Tag: inferred.
  • England XI at right-back (Quansah out, James risk) — defensive stability unknown. Tag: unknown.
  • High extra-time probability (27%) — league scores 90 minutes only; a draw at 90 is a real outcome. Tag: confirmed rule.

Sources